Crypto Fear and Greed Index falls to 56 as Bitcoin ETFs log October outflows
In brief
- Crypto Fear and Greed Index read 56 Monday, down from an Aug. 26 year-high of 82.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs were down a net $386.3 million for October, per Decrypt.
- Brent crude topped $101; the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70%, highest since 2002.
- Myriad traders priced 56% odds of Bitcoin dropping to $80,000.
From extreme greed to neutral
The index runs from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). It peaked at 82 on Aug. 26, its high for the year, and read 68 a month ago, per Decrypt.
That's a sharp turn.
The August rally lifted Bitcoin's price 24.9%, enough for Fundstrat co-founder and Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee and CryptoQuant's Kim Yong Yu to declare the bear market over. Decrypt said sentiment has since shifted, going against seasonal trends that are typically reliable.
Bitcoin peaked at $86,978 early last week and slid as low as $81,749.83 on Oct. 8 (a drop of about 6%) before recovering to roughly $83,800 on Monday. It's still about 34% below its all-time high above $126,000, set on Oct. 6, 2025.
ETF outflows and a macro squeeze
Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $484.9 million on Wednesday last week, their worst day since June, and another $244.1 million the next day, Decrypt reported. A $21.1 million inflow on Friday left the funds down a net $386.3 million for October. Ethereum funds haven't fared better: their outflow streak reached nine days, with $635 million out this month.
Decrypt puts much of the pressure on macro. Brent crude topped $101 a barrel last week as ship attacks around the Strait of Hormuz piled up, and the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70%, its highest since 2002. Brent was trading near $110 at the time of Decrypt's report, even after President Donald Trump said the U.S. wouldn't engage in war at least until November.
"Stocks, gold and Bitcoin sold off together that day, which points to a macro trade rather than a crypto problem."
In Decrypt's view, higher inflation makes Fed rate cuts harder and hikes more likely (the path described in the central bank's latest minutes). Bitcoin pays no yield and trades as a risk asset, so rising yields and hike expectations tend to push it lower, as they did on Oct. 7, the outlet said.
What prediction markets are pricing
Traders on Myriad, a prediction market developed by Dastan (Decrypt's parent company), gave Bitcoin a 45% chance of touching $87,500 in October. That's down from 55% on Oct. 7. Odds of reaching $90,000 slipped to 28% from 36%.
The downside looks busier. Myriad traders priced 56% odds of a drop to $80,000, 33% for $77,500 and 20% for $75,000.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Crypto Fear and Greed Index?
It's a 0-to-100 gauge of investor appetite in the crypto market, where 0 is extreme fear and 100 is extreme greed. Decrypt reported it read 56, a neutral level, on Monday after peaking at 82 on Aug. 26.
Why has Bitcoin fallen in October, according to Decrypt?
Decrypt pointed to macro pressure: Brent crude topped $101 a barrel and the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70%, its highest since 2002. It said rising yields and rate-hike expectations tend to push Bitcoin lower because it pays no yield and trades as a risk asset.
How much have spot Bitcoin ETFs lost in October?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs were down a net $386.3 million for October after a $21.1 million inflow on Friday, Decrypt reported. That followed a $484.9 million outflow on Wednesday last week, their worst day since June, and another $244.1 million the next day.
