Ipsos poll: 69% of Democrats, 61% of Republicans oppose prediction market election bets
In brief
- Ipsos poll: 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans oppose election betting on prediction markets
- Survey of 4,506 US adults ran Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, per CryptoSlate
- Poll measured approval of betting, not trust in forecasts or reasons for opposition
- Kalshi says most of its traffic comes from people who watch rather than trade
What the poll actually measured
The Ipsos survey interviewed 4,506 US adults from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, and it measured approval of betting, CryptoSlate reported. Respondents also opposed using prediction markets to bet on other things, like military actions and government policy decisions.
It's a narrow question, though. CryptoSlate noted the answers don't show whether people trust the forecasts (or which objections drove their views), so the poll isn't a verdict on accuracy. It's a read on whether Americans approve of the betting itself.
How an election contract works
In a basic election contract, the winning side pays $1 and the losing side pays nothing, CryptoSlate explained. Buy a candidate's victory at 60 cents and you make 40 cents if they win. If they don't, you lose your 60 cents.
The outlet also walked through a hedging case: a company that stands to lose money if the government makes a particular decision can buy a contract that pays out if that decision goes against it. There's a catch for anyone reading the headline number, though.
The odds you see on a market don't tell you which of them made the most trades.
Kalshi leans on transparency
Kalshi's Oct. 6 election update introduced low-volume labels and more prominent trade feeds, alongside scores comparing forecasts with outcomes, according to CryptoSlate. Kalshi also said most of its traffic comes from people who watch rather than trade.
That's a telling detail.
If most visitors are spectators, the platforms are pitching themselves as information tools as much as trading venues. In CryptoSlate's analysis, the poll shows that the industry's argument for better information isn't enough to win public support for election betting. The survey doesn't say why respondents object, so it can't tell operators which of those concerns they'd need to address first.
Frequently asked questions
How does a basic election contract on a prediction market work?
In a basic election contract, the winning side pays $1 and the losing side pays nothing, according to CryptoSlate. Buying a candidate's victory at 60 cents earns 40 cents if the candidate wins, or loses the 60 cents if they don't.
Did the Ipsos poll measure whether Americans trust prediction market forecasts?
No. CryptoSlate reported the survey of 4,506 US adults measured approval of betting. The answers don't show whether people trust the forecasts or which objections drove their views.
