Kalshi prices California Prop 40 billionaire wealth tax at 32% despite poll support
In brief
- Kalshi traders priced Proposition 40's chance of passing at 32%, according to Crypto Briefing.
- Proposition 40 would levy a one-time 5% tax on billionaires' net worth.
- Kalshi odds moved from 28% to 29% before settling at 32%, with pricing favoring NO.
- Two unnamed polls cited by Crypto Briefing showed more voters in favor than opposed.
What Proposition 40 would do
Proposition 40 is a one-time levy, according to Crypto Briefing's description of the measure. It would take 5% of the net worth of billionaires residing in California as of January 1, 2026. That's the core of the proposal as the outlet describes it: a single hit on net worth, tied to residency on one specific date.
Most of the money would go to healthcare, with smaller shares set aside for education and food assistance (again, per Crypto Briefing's summary of the proposal).
Polls lean yes. The market doesn't.
Kalshi's price didn't jump overnight. The odds of passage moved from 28% to 29% before stabilizing at 32%, Crypto Briefing reported, and the outlet said current pricing is more supportive of a NO outcome. That's a market reading at the time of the report, not a forecast of how the vote will go.
Polling points the other way. Crypto Briefing cited two surveys without naming who ran them: one showed 48% in favor and 38% opposed, while another showed a closer split of 52% in favor and 46% opposed. Neither pollster is identified, so those numbers can't be traced back to a specific survey.
Public polls lean yes, and the market leans no.
What could move the odds
According to the Crypto Briefing report, announcements from the California Secretary of State's office about the measure's status on the ballot may also affect market pricing. The outlet named Secretary of State Shirley Weber and Governor Gavin Newsom as figures who may play influential roles in the outcome.
That's the outlet's speculation. The report doesn't say either official has taken a position on Proposition 40.
For now, Kalshi's 32% is the price traders have put on a billionaire tax that two unnamed polls show ahead, and it's a gap worth watching as the Secretary of State's office issues updates on the ballot.
Frequently asked questions
What is California's Proposition 40?
According to Crypto Briefing, Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of billionaires living in California as of January 1, 2026. Most of the money would go to healthcare, with smaller shares for education and food assistance.
What odds does Kalshi give Proposition 40 of passing?
Kalshi priced the measure's chance of passing at 32%, Crypto Briefing reported, after the odds moved from 28% to 29%. The outlet said current pricing leans toward a NO outcome. That's market pricing, not a forecast of the vote.
