Topic: #prediction-markets
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Fun CEO: On-Ramps and Bridges Will Disappear as Apps Embed Payments
Alex Fine, CEO of payments infrastructure firm Fun, said legacy crypto infrastructure like on-ramps and bridges will vanish as applications embed payments directly into user experience, abstracting blockchain complexity away.
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CLARITY Act ethics compromise under White House review ahead of Senate vote
The White House is reviewing a bipartisan ethics compromise on the CLARITY Act, which seeks to reform digital asset markets. The bill has cleared the Senate Banking Committee but requires 60 votes to advance, with a floor vote before August recess still uncertain.
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Strategy Inc. accelerates Bitcoin buying amid STRC dilution concerns
Strategy Inc. purchased 48 times more Bitcoin than it sold and issued 300 times more STRC than it repurchased, but prediction-market odds for the token reaching $100 by December 31 have weakened to 32%, signaling investor skepticism despite the company's aggressive accumulation strategy.
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Bitcoin ETFs Post Third Week of Inflows as Flows Slow to $33.8M
Bitcoin ETFs recorded their third consecutive week of net inflows despite a $465 million weekend outflow, closing the week with $33.8 million in net inflows. Weekly inflows have declined sharply from $197.4 million two weeks ago, raising questions about momentum sustainability.
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Bitcoin: Businesses buy 115K BTC in Q2 as individuals sell 78K
Business entities acquired 115,000 BTC in Q2 2026 as individual investors sold 78,000 BTC during the same period. Bitcoin declined 14.1% in value, yet prediction markets now price a July $67,500 target at 46% YES, up from 24% a week prior.
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Mark Sanford enters South Carolina Senate race, shifts GOP primary odds
Former South Carolina governor and congressman Mark Sanford announced his candidacy for the Republican primary to replace the late Senator Lindsey Graham, immediately impacting the nomination odds of rival Ralph Norman.
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San Francisco voters reject Proposition D union tax measure
San Francisco voters rejected Proposition D, a union-backed tax on high-paid executives, by 53.6% to 46.4%. The outcome reflects a political shift toward the center under Mayor Daniel Lurie, though observers debate whether a single ballot measure signals broader realignment.
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Coinbase AI Hallucinated World Cup Result Before Kickoff
Coinbase's AI-generated news alert incorrectly reported a Norway-Brazil World Cup match outcome hours before the game started, prompting CEO Brian Armstrong to investigate and the company to update its systems.
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Argentina vs Cape Verde: $ARG fan token and prediction market volatility
Argentina's World Cup knockout against Cape Verde on July 3 is triggering trading activity in the $ARG fan token and crypto prediction markets, exposing traders to regulatory and liquidity risks that can move prices faster than the scoreboard.
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Crypto hack thefts drop 7% in June to $76M, Humanity Protocol breach dominates
Cryptocurrency theft losses declined 7% in June 2026 to $76 million, but a single Humanity Protocol breach accounted for nearly half the total, highlighting persistent security vulnerabilities despite overall improvement.
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Crypto Fear & Greed Index hits 11, signaling extreme investor anxiety
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 11, reflecting extreme fear among investors and historically preceding volatile market conditions for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
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Japan's prediction markets use loyalty points to sidestep gambling laws
Japanese startups are building prediction markets using redeemable points instead of cryptocurrency to comply with local gambling laws, positioning themselves as alternatives to Polymarket while Polymarket itself targets government authorization by 2030.
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US Senators Urge CFTC Probe of Polymarket Over Deceptive Marketing
Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff have called on the CFTC to investigate Polymarket after reports that the platform paid influencers to film fake trades without proper disclosure, raising questions about the regulator's enforcement authority.
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FIFA 2026 World Cup: Kraken, Avalanche, Chainlink secure official crypto partnerships
Kraken, Avalanche, and Chainlink have secured official FIFA partnerships ahead of the 2026 World Cup, marking crypto's deepest integration into a major sporting event. The expansion to 48 teams across North America could drive mainstream adoption, but fan token volatility and regulatory headwinds pose risks.
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Kalshi sues Illinois over 15% sports prediction market tax
Kalshi filed a federal lawsuit against Illinois on Wednesday, challenging a new state tax on sports-related prediction markets set to launch July 1. The 15% gross-receipts tax puts the company at odds with federal regulators who oversee prediction markets.
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Rep. Steil Introduces Bill to Ban Lawmakers' Prediction Market Bets
Rep. Bryan Steil introduced legislation Thursday barring members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from wagering on prediction markets tied to government actions or elections, with penalties up to $2,000 or 10% of the wager's value.
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Kentucky sues Kalshi and Polymarket over sports betting contracts
Kentucky joined at least 17 states in suing prediction market operators, alleging they're running unlicensed sports betting platforms. The case highlights a growing legal dispute over whether prediction markets are federally regulated commodities or state-regulated gambling.
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Susquehanna's Maletz: Prediction Markets Need Market Makers for Institutional Adoption
Jeremy Maletz, head of macro trading at Susquehanna International Group, says prediction markets could serve as hedging tools for institutional investors, but adoption depends on market makers providing liquidity and stability across platforms like Kalshi.
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Galaxy Digital launches OTC prediction markets for institutions
Galaxy Digital launched over-the-counter prediction markets for institutional investors, completing a $10 million trade with hedge fund Arca tied to the proposed CLARITY Act crypto legislation.
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IRGC Navy halts US oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz
The IRGC Navy has reportedly halted a US oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz following warning shots, intensifying geopolitical tensions. Prediction markets on shipping disruptions have moved sharply, though longer-term stability expectations remain elevated.
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Spain Blocks Polymarket and Kalshi Over Gambling Law Violations
Spain's gambling regulator has blocked Polymarket and Kalshi, citing violations of gambling laws and lack of required administrative authorization. The platforms face three to four months of suspension as disciplinary proceedings unfold, marking the latest regulatory action against prediction markets globally.