Meta is testing a play-money prediction-market app with staff, WSJ reports
In brief
- Meta is testing a prediction-market app internally, The Wall Street Journal reported, per Crypto Briefing.
- Prior reports named the project Arena, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg reportedly leading the effort.
- Arena reportedly uses virtual currency, unlike real-money rivals Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Meta hasn't confirmed the app or any public launch date.
- Meta shut down Forecast, its previous forecasting app, in 2022.
What's been reported
Arena is reportedly built around virtual currency rather than real money, according to Crypto Briefing's account of the test. That's the key difference from Polymarket and Kalshi, where users put real stakes on the line. Meta hasn't confirmed any of these design details.
The company also reportedly plans to lean on its Llama AI model (it would generate event questions for users to forecast and serve personalized market recommendations). The employee prototype test is reportedly a step ahead of a potential public rollout on iOS and Android.
Meta hasn't confirmed any public launch dates.
The numbers, and where they come from
Crypto Briefing cited unsourced "research findings" claiming Meta anticipates at least 100 million monthly active participants and is aiming the app at users aged 18–34. Crypto Briefing didn't say where the research findings came from, and Meta hasn't confirmed either figure; we're treating them as unverified.
The same findings indicate Meta is exploring partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi. No deal has been announced, and neither firm has said it's working with Meta.
Meta has tried this before
Arena follows Forecast, a crowd-forecasting app Meta launched around 2020-2021. Forecast was discontinued in 2022, reportedly because of high operational costs.
Crypto Briefing's analysis frames the play-money model as a way to broaden forecasting's user base while giving Meta data on user preferences and engagement that it could use for future monetization. It also notes that real-money prediction markets carry regulatory questions, plus a psychological barrier for people who don't want to risk cash.
That's the bet as Crypto Briefing describes it: no cash on the line, lots of data coming back. For now, though, it's an internal test that Meta hasn't publicly acknowledged.
Frequently asked questions
How is Meta's reported Arena app different from Polymarket and Kalshi?
Arena is reportedly designed around virtual currency rather than real money, according to Crypto Briefing. On Polymarket and Kalshi, users put real stakes on the line. Meta hasn't confirmed the app's design.
Has Meta built a forecasting app before?
Yes. Arena follows Forecast, a crowd-forecasting app Meta launched around 2020-2021. Forecast was discontinued in 2022, reportedly because of high operational costs.
