Topic: #interest-rates
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Wall Street warns sustained Fed rate hikes could derail market rally
Market participants increasingly fear a prolonged Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle could stall growth in equities and risk assets, while a stronger dollar pressures gold prices downward ahead of September's policy decision.
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UBS Forecasts Two Fed Rate Hikes Before End of 2026
UBS Global Wealth Management now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates twice by end of 2026, reversing prior guidance. The shift reflects stronger-than-expected employment data and persistent inflation, prompting UBS to raise Treasury yield forecasts and advise clients on portfolio positioning.
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US 30-year Treasury yield tops 5% for longest streak since 2007
The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.14% as of late July 2026, marking the longest streak above 5% in nearly two decades. Rising inflation expectations and energy prices are reshaping the calculus for risk assets, including crypto, as investors demand higher compensation for long-term lending to the US government.
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Bitcoin Bounces to $66K, But Yield-Adjusted Valuations Lag 2020-21 Peaks
Bitcoin regained momentum on July 22, 2026, but yield-adjusted valuations remain far below 2020-21 peaks. Analysts warn that divergence between nominal prices and interest-rate-adjusted levels may resolve through asset price decline if oil-driven inflation persists.
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US Treasury faces refinancing crisis as Fed turns hawkish on rates
The US government faces a refinancing crisis as $39.5 trillion in total debt matures, with roughly 20% due in four months and the Fed signaling higher rates ahead to combat inflation.
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Bond traders bet on July Fed rate hike as Chair Warsh signals hawkish stance
Bond traders are placing record bets on a July Fed rate hike following hawkish signals from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at his June debut. CME futures show 30% odds for July, while the dot plot suggests nine of 18 policymakers expect at least one hike by year-end, potentially strengthening the dollar and pressuring risk assets including crypto.
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Bitcoin drops below $60K on Fed hawkishness and ETF outflows
Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since late 2024 on June 5, pressured by hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, sustained outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, and investor capital rotating into artificial intelligence infrastructure spending.