Onsemi targets 12%-14% revenue CAGR through 2030 on AI data center power push
In brief
- Onsemi raised its long-term revenue growth target to a 12%-14% CAGR through 2030.
- Onsemi is aiming for approximately $11 billion in total revenue by 2030.
- AI data center revenue is projected to top $2.5 billion by 2030, a CAGR above 50%.
- J.P. Morgan maintained its Buy rating; Stifel lowered its price target.
AI data center power leads the model
Onsemi projected its AI data center segment revenue would exceed $500 million in 2026 and surpass $2.5 billion by 2030. The company said that pace would substantially outrun growth in the broader AI data center market.
That's a CAGR of over 50%.
The bet rests on content per rack. Onsemi forecast semiconductor content per AI rack would rise from about $15,000 to more than $115,000 by 2030, driven by a shift toward higher-voltage architectures. It also pointed to its role in Nvidia's MGX ecosystem, where onsemi said it landed a major Vcore socket design win that's expected to generate revenue by late 2026.
CEO Hassane El-Khoury said there were no signs of an AI slowdown, citing data center project visibility through 2027.
Autos, industrial and a $213 billion TAM
The rest of the portfolio isn't growing at that clip. Onsemi expected its automotive segment to grow approximately 9% annually and industrial approximately 10% (both well short of the AI data center projection, but they're still part of the 12%-14% blended target).
The company also targeted a total addressable market of $213 billion for its core power business by 2030. According to onsemi, that figure could expand further with its ongoing Synaptics acquisition.
Analysts don't agree
Wall Street didn't read the targets the same way. J.P. Morgan pointed to potential earnings per share of $10-$11 by 2030 and maintained a Buy rating. Stifel took the opposite view, calling the targets modest and adjusting its price target downward (the report didn't give a new figure).
Following the event, onsemi shares showed initial positive momentum amid a generally strong environment for tech stocks, Crypto Briefing reported. All of the 2030 figures are company targets set at the September event, not results, and it's the 2026 data center number that'll be tested first.
Frequently asked questions
What revenue target did onsemi set for 2030?
At its Investor/Analyst Day on September 16, 2026, onsemi raised its long-term revenue growth target to a 12%-14% compound annual rate through 2030. Under the revised model, it is aiming for approximately $11 billion in total revenue by 2030.
Why is onsemi focused on AI data centers?
Onsemi projected AI data center revenue would exceed $500 million in 2026 and surpass $2.5 billion by 2030, a CAGR of over 50%. It forecast semiconductor content per AI rack rising from about $15,000 to more than $115,000 by 2030 as architectures shift to higher voltages.
How did analysts react to onsemi's new targets?
J.P. Morgan pointed to potential earnings per share of $10-$11 by 2030 and maintained a Buy rating. Stifel viewed the targets as modest and adjusted its price target downward.
