Samson Mow: Bitcoin Bottom Is In Despite Analyst Skepticism
In brief
- Samson Mow argues bitcoin bottom is in based on accelerated halving cycle.
- Bitcoin hit all-time high 37 days before April 2024 halving, breaking traditional patterns.
- Analysts predict lower bottoms ranging from $40,000 to $55,000.
The case for an accelerated cycle
Mow's reasoning hinges on a specific data point: bitcoin reached an all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving, breaking the traditional four-year pattern. He contends this acceleration signals the bottom has already arrived. Mow is best known for his $1 million bitcoin price prediction and his work with El Salvador's bitcoin initiatives.
Analysts remain divided
The market community is far from convinced. Several analysts have suggested that growing institutional demand following the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs could alter the traditional halving cycle pattern, potentially supporting Mow's thesis. Yet others predict significantly lower prices ahead.
Arthur Hayes, BitMex co-founder, predicted bitcoin would bottom at around $40,000 within the next six months. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes the bitcoin bottom is more likely at $55,000 and not until somewhere between August and October.
CoinDesk's research team splits on the outlook. CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole wrote that bitcoin's 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages suggest the market is near a bottom, aligning closer to Mow's view. But James Van Straten, CoinDesk's senior analyst, said bitcoin may still need to plunge 15% or more to mark the bottom based on the 200-week moving average.
Van Straten identified the the $50,000 to $54,000 range as a potential key battleground for bitcoin. His analysis draws on historical precedent: in every major bear market since 2011, bitcoin eventually traded below its realized price before establishing a cycle bottom. Bitcoin has not yet fallen beneath its realized price in the current cycle, according to Van Straten.
The divergence reflects a fundamental disagreement about whether traditional cycle frameworks still hold in an era of institutional participation and spot ETF inflows.
