TrendForce forecasts 13% to 18% rise in PC DRAM contract prices for 4Q26
In brief
- PC DRAM contract prices will rise 13% to 18% quarter-over-quarter in 4Q26, TrendForce forecasts.
- The 4Q26 forecast is below the 18% to 23% increase TrendForce tracked for 3Q26.
- Notebook shipments fell roughly 14% to 15.8% quarter-over-quarter in 3Q26, TrendForce projects.
- OEM DRAM inventories rose to seven to ten weeks in early 4Q26, per TrendForce.
- Korean suppliers plan PC DRAM output cuts above 20% in 2027, TrendForce said.
Supply stays tight
TrendForce attributed the continuing increases to persistent supply tightness, according to the firm's research update as reported by Crypto Briefing. Memory makers have been steering production toward advanced DRAM nodes, which mainly serve server customers and the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI accelerators.
TrendForce's 2027 outlook points the same way. Major suppliers (particularly Korean manufacturers) planned to cut PC DRAM output by more than 20% year-over-year in 2027 to prioritize server DRAM, according to the firm. It's a forecast, not a settled outcome.
Prices across the wider memory market are moving the same way. TrendForce expected overall conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10% to 15% quarter-over-quarter in 4Q26, while NAND Flash contract prices were projected to climb 15% to 20%.
Notebooks are the weak spot
Demand looks very different. TrendForce projected notebook shipments would fall by roughly 14% to 15.8% quarter-over-quarter in 3Q26 (an estimate, not a final tally), with a further decline expected in 4Q26.
Inventories are building too. OEM DRAM stock rose from six to nine weeks at the end of 3Q26 to seven to ten weeks in early 4Q26, and TrendForce expected it to keep growing. Earlier in 2026, PC OEMs had ramped up memory purchases ahead of expected price hikes, trying to secure supply before costs rose further.
The report said weak PC sales and rising inventories were now slowing price increases for both PC DRAM and client SSDs.
AI demand, by TrendForce's account, hasn't let up.
How PC makers are responding
TrendForce noted that more than a year of rising memory prices had put mounting cost pressure on the consumer electronics industry. So what are OEMs doing about it? Some were planning to adjust memory procurement for 4Q26 and into 1Q27. Others were considering leaning more on private-label or white-label models with downgraded components to improve cost efficiency.
Both shifts come from TrendForce's research, not company announcements; the firm didn't tie either plan to a specific manufacturer.
Frequently asked questions
Why are PC DRAM prices still rising if notebook sales are falling?
TrendForce attributes the increases to persistent supply tightness. Memory makers have been shifting production toward advanced DRAM nodes that mainly serve server customers and HBM for AI accelerators. Weak PC sales and rising inventories are slowing the increases, but they haven't stopped them.
How are PC makers responding to higher memory costs?
According to TrendForce, some OEMs planned to adjust memory procurement for 4Q26 and into 1Q27. Others were considering relying more on private-label or white-label models with downgraded components to improve cost efficiency. TrendForce noted that more than a year of rising memory prices had put mounting cost pressure on consumer electronics.
