XRP Ends July at $1.06, Eyes Break of Four-Year August Losing Streak

The August Curse

XRP's August streak is stark. The last time the token closed August in the green was 2021. Since then, August has closed in the red for four consecutive years. Despite this, XRP's historical average return for August stands at +0.43%, suggesting the month itself isn't inherently bearish—just unlucky for this particular asset in recent years.

The broader picture is grimmer. XRP's first quarter of 2026 closed with a 27.1% decline, followed by a second quarter fall of 22.4%. June alone dragged the coin down by 22.1%. Those performances dwarf the disastrous June average of -6.40% and February average of -6.14% that XRP typically posts.

Q3 Seasonality and Technical Setup

Yet Q3 itself tells a different story. XRP's third quarter returns have now moved into positive territory at +2.10%, with July remaining in the green with a gain of 1.91%. More importantly, XRP's historical average return for the third quarter is +17%, and the median rises to +25.8%. The overall Q3 performance has remained positive for the past four years, despite local declines during August.

Technically, the coin has been moving inside a broad descending wedge for more than a year. The upper boundary of this global trend currently lies around $1.20–$1.25, while the price is currently compressed near the lower boundary of the local support range at approximately $1.05–$1.06. That proximity to support is significant—it suggests limited downside if August turns red again, but meaningful upside if the token can hold or break higher.

The Bar Is Low

Here's what makes August 2026 different: XRP does not need to set any records to break its four-year losing streak. It only needs to close August above its opening price. That's not a rally. That's not a surge. That's just not going down. Given the token's compressed position at support and Q3's historical tailwind, the setup is at least plausible.