XRP needs 11% gain to reach $1.70 level Kalshi traders favored, U.Today says
In brief
- Kalshi traders saw $1.70 as XRP's most likely September level, per U.Today on Sept 27.
- XRP traded at $1.53 at the time, more than 11% below the target.
- XRP rose about 47.6% in Q3 2026, U.Today said, citing unnamed onchain data.
- Kalshi odds and contract volume for the $1.70 outcome were absent from the report.
What Kalshi traders priced in
According to U.Today's report, data on the Kalshi prediction market showed traders predicting XRP was most likely to hit $1.70 during the month. That's U.Today's reading of the market, not a LeoDex News forecast. The data is dated Sept 27 (and September is now nearly over), so it shouldn't be treated as a live snapshot of the odds.
The timing matters. U.Today said the prediction came a few days after XRP broke resistance around $1.60, following multiple months of trading below that level. The token then cooled briefly from that rally, and it sat at $1.53 when the article was written.
That left a gap of more than 11% to close in three days.
The quarter behind the bet
Citing onchain data, U.Today reported that XRP rose about 47.6% in the third quarter of 2026. It's a sharp turnaround. The gain came after two consecutive quarters of losses for the token.
September is the last month of Q3. U.Today said the month extended the previous month's bullish performance and gave XRP its highest quarterly gain of the year, and the outlet called the third quarter XRP's strongest of the year.
What the numbers don't say
The report doesn't give a probability or a contract volume for the $1.70 outcome on Kalshi. Without those figures, "most likely" is a ranking and not a confidence level, so readers can't tell how heavily traders backed it or how thin the market was. The 47.6% quarterly figure also rests on onchain data that U.Today didn't name.
Those gaps matter more for prediction markets than for spot prices. A price at $1.53 is observable. A trader consensus with no disclosed odds isn't, at least not from this report.
The $1.70 question will settle once September's final trading days are done, and the quarter's performance numbers will be final at the same time. U.Today's report doesn't say whether XRP reached the level.
