Analysts see no contagion from $6.3 billion Binance hack as outflows slow
In brief
- Binance's pledge to cover losses contained the hack's market fallout, analysts told Cointelegraph.
- Binance daily net outflows fell to $458 million from $6.1 billion, DefiLlama data shows.
- Bitcoin fell as much as 5.7% in the first five days post-hack, a drop CryptoQuant called modest.
- The Nov. 10 CPI reading and Fed rate odds now matter more, analysts said.
The balance sheet takes the hit
Martin Lee, market insights lead at DWF Labs, said there didn't appear to be any contagion from the hack because Binance can cover the losses out of its own balance sheet.
“There doesn’t seem to be any contagion-type effect from the hack, given that Binance is able to cover the losses using its balance sheet,” Martin Lee, market insights lead at DWF Labs, said.
Lee told Cointelegraph that investors have since turned their focus to the implications of the US midterm elections.
Withdrawal data points the same way. According to DefiLlama, Binance's daily net outflows fell to $458 million in the 24 hours before Cointelegraph's Monday publication, down from $6.1 billion on Nov. 2 after withdrawals resumed.
That's a steep drop.
A modest drawdown, by historical standards
Bitcoin fell as much as 5.7% over the first five days after the hack, a decline CryptoQuant called "modest" in a Wednesday report. For comparison, BTC dropped roughly 13.6% after the $1.4 billion Bybit hack in 2025 and about 9.9% after the Coincheck hack in 2018. At least 14 of the past 38 hacks CryptoQuant reviewed were followed by steeper Bitcoin declines.
Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, said major exchange hacks have previously triggered short-lived drawdowns that markets later absorbed as long-term holder demand returned. She added that the Binance hack doesn't represent a "structural trend reversal" for crypto markets.
Macro is back in charge
Bitfinex analysts said much of the hack's impact now looks priced in (they also described Bitcoin as trading at an "attractive level"). Cointelegraph's report went on to cite analysts saying confirmation of a market bottom depends on the Consumer Price Index reading due Nov. 10, which will shape the Federal Reserve's next rate decision.
Rate expectations haven't been kind. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, market participants priced in an 80% chance of a Fed rate hike at its Dec. 9 meeting, up from 69% a month earlier.
Bitcoin fell 2.5% over 24 hours to $74,580 as of 1:21 pm UTC on Monday, Nov. 9, according to CoinMarketCap.
In a related report, Cointelegraph said that according to SEAL, the Binance hackers had an eight-week intrusion window before the exploit.
Frequently asked questions
How did Bitcoin react to the $6.3 billion Binance hack?
Bitcoin fell as much as 5.7% over the first five days after the Oct. 29 hack, a decline CryptoQuant called modest. By comparison, BTC dropped roughly 13.6% after the 2025 Bybit hack and about 9.9% after the 2018 Coincheck hack.
Why do analysts say the Binance hack didn't cause contagion?
DWF Labs' Martin Lee told Cointelegraph that Binance can cover the losses from its balance sheet, so he saw no contagion-type effect. DefiLlama data shows Binance's daily net outflows fell to $458 million from $6.1 billion on Nov. 2.
