Bitcoin falls 7.3% in October 2026 as analysts question the Uptober pattern
In brief
- Bitcoin fell 7.3% in October 2026, per CoinGlass data cited by Cointelegraph.
- Second straight October loss for Bitcoin, after a roughly 4% decline in 2025.
- October historically delivered Bitcoin's highest median return, 15.4%, according to Kaiko's Andrew Yang.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $515 million in October net outflows, Cointelegraph reported.
- Analysts cautioned against writing off Uptober entirely despite two losing Octobers.
Two Octobers in the red
Kaiko's Andrew Yang said October has delivered Bitcoin a median return of 15.4%, with gains in 10 of 13 years through 2025. On his numbers, that's the best month on the calendar.
This year didn't follow the script.
Industry figures reached for darker labels like "Black October" and "Hacktober" amid a wave of crypto security incidents, Cointelegraph reported. Fund flows weren't much better. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $515 million in net outflows in October, while spot Ether ETFs posted a record $1.61 billion in monthly withdrawals, according to Cointelegraph.
Smaller swings, positioning ahead of time
Yang gave a few reasons the pattern may be fading. Bitcoin has gained every September since 2023, which he said could reflect traders buying ahead of an expected October rally (September's bearish reputation has weakened as well). He also said narrowing price swings may be making seasonal trends less pronounced, since Bitcoin's typical monthly move dropped from 14% between 2013 and 2016 to 9.6% since 2024, leaving less room for sharp seasonal rallies.
XYO co-founder Markus Levin said traders may be pricing in the seasonal gains sooner.
“When enough people expect a rally in October, the rally gets priced in before the month arrives,” he said.
Justin d'Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, said ETF flows and corporate Bitcoin buyers make investment decisions based more on liquidity, interest rates and investment mandates than on seasonal trading narratives. Other analysts said institutional investment and broader economic conditions are having a growing influence on price. Yang added a caveat of his own: spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in January 2024, are still too recent to assess.
Analysts urge caution on writing off Uptober
Despite the two consecutive losses, analysts cautioned against writing off Uptober entirely. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said October has generally done better in Bitcoin bull markets and worse in bear markets, which makes the broader market cycle important when comparing returns.
Frequently asked questions
How did Bitcoin perform in October 2026?
Bitcoin fell 7.3% in October 2026, according to CoinGlass data cited by Cointelegraph. It followed a roughly 4% decline in October 2025, so that's two losing Octobers in a row.
Why might Bitcoin's October seasonality be weakening?
Kaiko researcher Andrew Yang said traders may be buying in September ahead of an expected October rally. He also said Bitcoin's typical monthly move fell from 14% in 2013–2016 to 9.6% since 2024, which leaves less room for sharp seasonal rallies.
Does market cycle matter for October returns?
CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said October has generally done better in Bitcoin bull markets and worse in bear markets. In his view, that makes the broader market cycle important when comparing October returns.
