Bitcoin slips below $81,000 while futures price 85% odds of a Fed hike by December
In brief
- Bitcoin fell below $81,000 on Oct. 8, hitting an intraday low near $80,800, per CryptoSlate.
- September FOMC minutes showed most participants saw another hike by year-end as probable.
- Futures pricing cited by Fed Governor Waller gave 85% odds of at least one hike by December.
- CoinGlass logged over $1 billion in 24-hour liquidations, $930 million of it from longs.
- Glassnode put spot and ETF volume near $6.8 billion a day, a historically low reading.
A pause isn't a pivot
October isn't the problem for crypto. What comes after it is.
The September FOMC minutes, released Oct. 7, said most participants viewed another increase by year-end as probable and kept decisions data-dependent. Fed Governor Christopher Waller cited futures pricing as of Oct. 7 that assigned an 85% chance to at least one hike by December. The same pricing put nearly 80% odds on at least two hikes by March 2027 and 33% on three or more. Waller said further hikes were probable if data evolved as expected, and that the Fed could skip meetings along the way. So a hold this month doesn't take December off the table (though nothing's been decided).
Rates markets weren't calm either. On Oct. 8 the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.305%, the 2-year sat at 4.821% and Brent crude traded at $104.87.
Thin volume, heavy leverage
Glassnode's Oct. 7 report, as cited by CryptoSlate, put combined spot-exchange and US spot Bitcoin ETF volume near $6.8 billion a day. That's below roughly 90% of observations since January 2024. Estimated new money from ETFs, stablecoins and corporate treasury buying totaled $4.9 billion, while realized cap rose $12.8 billion over 30 days.
Glassnode had also flagged a modeled cluster of long liquidations between $81,700 and $83,300, plus large Binance bids around $81,000 to $81,250. CoinGlass registered over $1 billion in liquidations over the prior 24 hours, and $930 million of that was tied to longs. Bitcoin was down 3.42% on the day (it still ranks first by market cap).
CryptoSlate's Gino Matos reads it this way: liquidations amplified the move, and macro forces as the trigger is a supported interpretation. He added that proving the sequence would take intraday data.
The levels being watched
So where does price go from here? CryptoSlate's analysis is conditional. If buyers rebuild above an $85,500 reclaim threshold with higher spot volume, Bitcoin would run into a sell-order concentration at $86,500 to $86,750. Beyond that sits Glassnode's largest one-year cluster of liquidations above price, from $87,100 to $95,900 and heaviest near $92,000. If buyers don't rebuild, Glassnode's next modeled cluster below price is near $75,000.
None of those are forecasts. They're modeled zones, not confirmed orders.
The next macro tests are September CPI on Oct. 14, the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting and the Dec. 8-9 meeting.
Frequently asked questions
Why did Bitcoin fall below $81,000 on Oct. 8?
CryptoSlate's Gino Matos said macro forces as the trigger is a supported interpretation and that liquidations amplified the move. He added that proving the sequence would require intraday data. CoinGlass logged over $1 billion in 24-hour liquidations, $930 million of it from long positions.
What are futures markets pricing for Fed rate hikes?
Fed Governor Christopher Waller cited futures pricing as of Oct. 7 that gave an 85% chance of at least one hike by December. The same pricing put nearly 80% odds on at least two hikes by March 2027 and 33% on three or more. No December hike has been decided.
Which macro events come next for Bitcoin traders?
The next macro tests are the September CPI release on Oct. 14, the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting and the Dec. 8-9 FOMC meeting. The September FOMC minutes said rate decisions remain data-dependent.
