Bitcoin tests $76K support as oil surges past $100 amid rate shock
In brief
- Bitcoin dropped to $76,676.07 intraday low on September 10, testing critical support.
- West Texas Intermediate crude surged above $100 for first time since May, up 4%+.
- 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.93% as markets priced 76% Fed rate hike probability.
- Over $568 million in crypto positions liquidated in 24 hours amid macro pressures.
- European Central Bank raised deposit rate 25 basis points to 2.5% same day.
Energy prices ignite macro selloff
West Texas Intermediate crude rose more than 4% to above $100 a barrel for the first time since May. Brent crude climbed past $105 after escalating attacks on Middle East shipping routes. The energy shock has been severe—Brent has risen more than 30% from its early-August lows.
Higher crude prices feed inflation expectations. US producer prices rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% from a year earlier, with core PPI increasing 0.2% from the previous month. These numbers suggest energy costs may begin flowing through wholesale prices and core inflation in the months ahead.
Treasury yields spike as Fed rate odds climb
The bond market repriced aggressively. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.93%, and the 30-year touched 5.35%, its highest level in 19 years. The two-year Treasury yield climbed to about 4.50%, nearly a percentage point above the top of the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range.
Rate markets priced in approximately 76% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve increase. The probability reflects trader conviction that inflation pressures and energy volatility will push the Fed to act at its September 15-16 meeting.
Central banks tighten; crypto liquidations accelerate
The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on September 10, marking its second increase in 2024. The ECB now expects inflation to average 2.5% in 2027, up from its June projection of 2.3%.
The tightening cascade hit leveraged crypto traders hard. More than 161,900 traders were liquidated over the previous 24 hours, with total forced position closures reaching about $568 million. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.7% as equities absorbed the same macro headwinds.
Brusuelas estimated current diesel prices were equivalent to crude trading near $207 a barrel and said higher energy costs could begin feeding through wholesale prices and core inflation during September.
The $76,000 support cluster remains critical. If BTC breaks decisively below this level on a close, the next technical target sits lower. Conversely, a hold here could signal exhaustion of the sell-off and set up a relief bounce into the Fed's decision window.
Traders will watch Friday's consumer-price report closely—it may shape whether the Fed hikes by 25 basis points or pauses. For Bitcoin, which has historically traded inverse to real rates and risk sentiment, clarity on Fed policy could unlock the next directional move.
