Chainalysis estimates $176 billion in China crypto activity, 59.1% peer-to-peer
In brief
- Chainalysis estimates at least $176 billion of China crypto activity in 12 months through June 2026.
- Domestic peer-to-peer transfers carried 59.1% of activity, a share 3.5 times higher than before.
- Monthly new stablecoin activity rose from roughly $240 million to almost $5 billion.
- Self-custodied stablecoin turnover hit 33.2 times, versus a 9.3 times global benchmark.
- Chainalysis calls a social-credit link a working hypothesis, not evidence of causation.
Stablecoin payments picked up in March 2025
Chainalysis said domestic stablecoin payment activity began accelerating around March 2025 and kept expanding for 13 consecutive month-over-month periods. New activity added each month went from roughly $240 million in March 2025 to almost $5 billion about a year later.
It isn't only large institutional transfers, either. Growth was concentrated in transaction sizes consistent with individuals and smaller businesses, per the firm's data. Stablecoin volumes below $100 rose 996%, while transfers between $100 and $1,000 rose 1,057% (and activity between $1,000 and $10,000 climbed 1,321%).
A hypothesis, not a cause
The timing lines up with a policy shift. China expanded aspects of its social-credit system into finance and online activity in March 2025, and Chainalysis said that raised the possibility that tighter integration of the system with financial and internet infrastructure was encouraging some users to transact outside traditional payment channels.
The firm called that a working hypothesis rather than evidence of causation.
That caveat matters. Blockchain data can show when and how assets move, but it can't establish why an individual chose a payment method.
Stablecoins that don't sit still
The turnover numbers are the striking part. Chainalysis calculated annual turnover of self-custodied stablecoin holdings in China at 33.2 times, versus a global benchmark of 9.3 times. Japan came in at 9.9, Hong Kong at 6.1, South Korea at 5.1 and Taiwan at 3.5.
China-attributed wallets held an average of about $3.1 billion of stablecoins but transferred $104.1 billion across 18.1 million transactions during the period. Chainalysis said high turnover like that is consistent with stablecoins functioning as working capital or settlement assets.
Most crypto economies lean heavily on regulated exchanges and centralized services, while China's restrictions have pushed more activity toward direct wallet transfers, CryptoSlate wrote. The outlet's read is that growth may keep running through offshore platforms, OTC networks and self-custody rather than conventional consumer-facing crypto businesses.
Frequently asked questions
How much crypto activity did Chainalysis estimate for China?
Chainalysis estimated China generated at least $176 billion of crypto activity during the 12 months through June 2026. It said 59.1% of that occurred through domestic peer-to-peer transfers rather than exchanges and other centralized platforms, a share 3.5 times higher than in the previous period.
Did China's social-credit system cause the rise in stablecoin payments?
Chainalysis said the timing raised the possibility that tighter integration of the social-credit system with financial and internet infrastructure encouraged some users to transact outside traditional channels. It described this as a working hypothesis rather than evidence of causation, since blockchain data can't establish why an individual chose a payment method.
How fast do stablecoins turn over in China compared with other markets?
Chainalysis calculated annual turnover of self-custodied stablecoin holdings in China at 33.2 times, versus a global benchmark of 9.3 times. Japan recorded 9.9, Hong Kong 6.1, South Korea 5.1 and Taiwan 3.5. Chainalysis said high turnover is consistent with stablecoins functioning as working capital or settlement assets.
