Japan's prediction markets use loyalty points to sidestep gambling laws
In brief
- Japanese startups replace crypto wagers with redeemable points to comply with gambling law restrictions
- Prediction platforms like POYP, Signals, and NERO YOSO prioritize compliance over trading volume
- Polymarket appoints local representative and targets Japan government authorization by 2030
- Gumi Group studies commercialization of compliant prediction markets using AI and blockchain
Compliance-first platforms emerge
Japanese startups are building prediction markets that replace crypto wagers with redeemable points to sidestep gambling restrictions. The most notable entrant is POYP, which brands itself as a "prediction market x points-earning" platform. Users forecast outcomes and earn coins redeemable for third-party benefits, but no cash or cryptocurrency changes hands during the prediction process itself.
IGS has built a platform called Signals that also focuses on compliance-first prediction tools. NERO YOSO is bringing prediction functionality to the LINE messaging app, which has roughly the cultural footprint in Japan that WhatsApp holds globally. Gumi Group, a publicly traded company with roots in mobile gaming, announced in October 2025 that it would study the commercialization of a compliant prediction market using AI and blockchain technology.
The legal strategy is deliberate. By separating prediction points from rewards, platforms create a clearer legal boundary between forecasting and economic benefit. This approach allows engagement-driven monetization through advertising and data rather than trading volume.
Polymarket's Japan play
Polymarket itself isn't ignoring Japan. The platform appointed Mike Eidlin, associated with the Jupiter crypto project, as its local representative and is targeting government authorization for prediction markets in Japan by 2030.
The regulatory environment remains uncertain. In June 2026, Japanese exchange Bitbank warned its users that transactions on prediction platforms could lead to account suspensions, signaling ongoing enforcement risk for platforms that accept crypto-denominated wagers.
Japan is effectively building a parallel universe for prediction markets. While the rest of the world debates whether platforms like Polymarket are gambling or information markets, Japan's builders are constructing a third category: engagement-driven forecasting tools that monetize through advertising and data rather than trading volume.
Frequently asked questions
Why do Japanese prediction platforms use points instead of cryptocurrency?
Japanese gambling law prohibits monetary stakes on uncertain events. By replacing crypto wagers with redeemable points, platforms sidestep the legal definition of gambling while still allowing users to forecast outcomes and earn rewards through advertising and data monetization.
How is POYP different from Polymarket?
POYP allows users to forecast outcomes and earn coins redeemable for third-party benefits without using cryptocurrency or cash. Polymarket, by contrast, processes billions in volume using crypto wagers, which violates Japanese gambling law. POYP's compliance-first model prioritizes regulatory approval over trading volume.
Is Polymarket trying to enter Japan?
Yes. Polymarket appointed Mike Eidlin as its local representative in Japan and is targeting government authorization for prediction markets by 2030. However, the regulatory path remains uncertain—Bitbank warned users in June 2026 that transactions on prediction platforms could lead to account suspensions.
