Maersk raises 2025 profit guidance on European demand surge
In brief
- Maersk raised 2025 EBITDA guidance to $8-9.5B from $6-9B, citing European demand resilience.
- Non-US markets offset declining American imports as tariff uncertainty reduced North American trade.
- 2026 EBITDA projected to fall to $4.5-7B due to pandemic-era vessel delivery overcapacity.
Demand Shift Lifts 2025 Outlook
US import volumes have contracted as tariff uncertainty made North American trade lanes less attractive. Meanwhile, Maersk reported revenue growth of 2.8% in the second quarter, posting EBIT of $845 million as shipments to Europe accelerated. CEO Vincent Clerc pointed to the resilience of non-North American demand as the key driver behind the upgraded outlook.
The company also revised its global container demand outlook upward, now projecting volume growth of 2-4% for 2025, up from a previous range of -1% to +4%. This shift suggests that while US tariff policies are reshaping trade flows, global container volumes remain robust outside North America.
2026 Headwinds Loom
The optimism carries a sharp caveat. By early 2026, the company reduced its EBITDA outlook to $4.5-7B, a significant step down from the $8-9.5B it now expects for 2025. The culprit is overcapacity. A wave of new vessel deliveries ordered during the pandemic-era shipping boom is hitting the market, flooding supply even as demand stays steady.
Maersk maintained its container volume growth guidance at 2-4% for 2026, signaling that demand isn't collapsing. The earnings pressure stems purely from supply: too many ships chasing the same cargo, which compresses margins across the industry. This dynamic illustrates a familiar shipping cycle—booms breed overcapacity, which then depresses returns until fleet utilization normalizes.
