PQ's St-Pierre Plamondon at 93% for Quebec premier in unnamed market: Crypto Briefing
In brief
- PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was priced at 93% in an unnamed prediction market, Crypto Briefing reported.
- Crypto Briefing's article doesn't name the platform behind the odds.
- Bernard Drainville, linked with the CAQ, was priced at 0.1% YES in the same market.
- PQ won't hold an independence referendum while Trump is U.S. president, Crypto Briefing said.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney could face challenges from a PQ return, the outlet said.
What the market shows
A market cited in Crypto Briefing's Vera prediction-market analysis priced St-Pierre Plamondon at 93% to be the next Premier of Quebec after the 2026 election. The article doesn't say which platform hosts that market. Bernard Drainville, linked with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), was priced at 0.1% YES in the same contract.
That's a wide gap.
According to the outlet, a PQ victory would return the party to power after more than a decade. It's worth being clear about what the 93% is (and what it isn't): it's market pricing as reported by Crypto Briefing, not a LeoDex forecast and not an election result.
The referendum question
The PQ supports Quebec independence. Crypto Briefing reported that the party has said it won't hold a referendum on the matter while Donald Trump is U.S. president, though the article doesn't cite a specific PQ statement for that position.
Observers are weighing what a PQ-led government's agenda would look like, the outlet said, and it could include a future independence referendum depending on political conditions. In Crypto Briefing's framing, that's where the potential challenge for Carney comes from.
What could move the odds
Crypto Briefing pointed to two variables. The first is polling.
Any shifts in polling that indicate a change in voter sentiment could affect the market outlook.
The second is the party itself. PQ statements on its independence agenda, especially in relation to the U.S. political climate, would be critical in judging whether a future referendum is likely, the outlet said.
For now, the 93% figure is one unnamed market's pricing, reported by a single outlet. It isn't a vote count, and readers shouldn't treat it as one.
Frequently asked questions
What odds did the prediction market give for Quebec's next premier?
An unnamed prediction market priced Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon at 93% to become Quebec's next premier after the 2026 election, as reported by Crypto Briefing. Bernard Drainville, linked with the CAQ, was priced at 0.1% YES. The article doesn't name the market platform.
Would a Parti Québécois government hold an independence referendum?
The PQ supports Quebec independence, but Crypto Briefing reported that it has said it won't hold a referendum while Donald Trump is U.S. president. The outlet said a PQ-led agenda could include a future referendum depending on political conditions.
