Prediction markets put Democratic Senate odds at 94% as midterm results come in
In brief
- Kalshi and Polymarket put Democratic Senate-control odds at 94% and 93% at 8:05 pm ET.
- Kalshi and Polymarket Senate odds sat at 75% and 75.5%, respectively, earlier Tuesday.
- House-control odds for Democrats stood at 98% and 99% on the Blockchain Association dashboard.
- AP called reelection wins for Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Mark Warner in Virginia.
- Warner voted against advancing the CLARITY Act in September, citing ethics safeguards.
Prices, not results
The same Blockchain Association dashboard showed Democratic House-control odds at 98% and 99% at that hour. That's a sharp move on the Senate side inside a single day.
Those figures are prediction-market pricing. They aren't race calls, and they aren't projections either.
What's at stake is simple enough. The results are set to show whether President Donald Trump's Republican Party kept control of Congress, which would shape his ability to advance his agenda in the final two years of his term.
Two called races with a crypto angle
Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff won reelection in Georgia, defeating Republican Rep. Mike Collins, according to Associated Press results cited by Cointelegraph. Ossoff isn't new to crypto politics. In April 2025, he expressed support for impeaching Trump over plans to host a private dinner for top holders of the TRUMP memecoin.
In Virginia, Democratic Sen. Mark Warner won reelection over Republican challenger Bert Mizusawa. Warner voted against advancing the CLARITY Act in September, arguing that crypto legislation needs safeguards against Trump personally benefiting from the industry.
His objection was about ethics, not the asset class.
Warner supports establishing federal rules for digital assets, according to Cointelegraph, and his opposition to the bill focused on its ethics protections rather than on the idea of a federal framework (a distinction that tends to get lost when a vote is reduced to a yes or no).
Turnout and poll closings
The first polls closed at 6 pm ET in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Georgia and Virginia followed at 7 pm ET, with Ohio closing at 7:30 pm ET.
Turnout was already heavy before Election Day. More than 57 million Americans had voted as of Monday, according to the Associated Press, and early voting exceeded 2022 levels in several closely watched states.
Cointelegraph is running its live tally on AP data, so every number here is a Tuesday-evening snapshot. They'll keep moving as more races are called.
Frequently asked questions
What were the prediction-market odds of Democrats taking the Senate on election night?
As of 8:05 pm ET Tuesday, the Blockchain Association's election dashboard showed Democratic Senate-control odds at 94% on Kalshi and 93% on Polymarket, according to Cointelegraph. Earlier in the day those odds were 75% and 75.5%. These are market prices, not race calls.
Why did Sen. Mark Warner vote against advancing the CLARITY Act?
Warner voted against advancing the CLARITY Act in September, arguing that crypto legislation needs safeguards against President Trump personally benefiting from the industry. He supports establishing federal rules for digital assets, and his opposition focused on the bill's ethics protections.
