Prediction Markets Shift From Questions to Data Infrastructure
In brief
- PredictionBubbles aggregates Polymarket and Kalshi markets with probability and volume metrics on one screen.
- Kalshi Research feeds real-time data to ProCap Insights; Kalshi Pro launched in beta for institutional traders.
- Contract structure, timing, and settlement method shape actual probability—a 63% price doesn't always mean 63% odds.
Dashboard and Data Feeds Reshape Competition
PredictionBubbles is a dashboard that maps prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi onto one screen. The platform turns tradable questions into bubbles that show probability, price movement, and volume, offering a unified view of fragmented markets.
The infrastructure push accelerated in early 2025. In April, ProCap Financial said Kalshi Research would feed real-time prediction market figures into ProCap Insights. Polymarket documents public market-discovery and analytics APIs, along with public order-book and pricing data. Kalshi released Kalshi Pro in beta in July for people managing many markets and resting orders.
Institutional adoption is climbing. Kalshi said in May that institutional trading volume had increased 800% in six months, a company-reported figure. In February, Kalshi separately announced a surveillance advisory committee and a technology partnership with Solidus Labs.
Why Raw Prices Mislead
Here's the catch: a price that looks definitive often isn't.
A price that looks like a 63% probability still reflects a particular contract, trading window, and settlement method rather than an unconditional forecast.
Research published in July and June reveals the gap between displayed prices and actual odds. An unreviewed July working paper analyzing roughly 23 million Kalshi NBA, MLB, and NHL moneyline trades found calibration was strongest during the middle of contracts and deteriorated in the final 10 minutes. Late-contract pricing becomes noisier, shaped by order flow and settlement urgency rather than pure probability.
Parlay pricing shows similar distortions. In a limited sample of 12,639 filtered parlay trades collected over 15 days, median pricing for two- to four-leg combinations was at or slightly below parity. A separate unreviewed June paper on Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin contracts found a spike in Binance spot flow during the final 10 seconds and a reversal after the close.
These aren't flaws in the markets themselves. They're features of how real trading works—timing, liquidity, and contract design all matter. As prediction markets move from niche forums into professional workflows, understanding those mechanics becomes essential for anyone reading the data.
Frequently asked questions
Why doesn't a 63% price always mean 63% odds?
A prediction market price reflects the specific contract structure, trading window, and settlement method—not an unconditional forecast. Calibration varies over time; research shows it deteriorates in the final minutes before contract close, when order flow and timing pressures distort pricing.
What is PredictionBubbles?
PredictionBubbles is a dashboard that aggregates prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi onto one screen, displaying probability, price movement, and volume for each tradable question.
How are prediction markets becoming financial data infrastructure?
Platforms are launching APIs, data feeds, and professional trading tools. Polymarket offers public APIs and order-book data. Kalshi Research feeds real-time figures to ProCap Insights. Kalshi Pro launched in beta for institutional traders managing multiple markets.
