Rep. Steil Introduces Bill to Ban Lawmakers' Prediction Market Bets
In brief
- Rep. Bryan Steil introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act to bar Congress members and families from prediction market betting.
- Penalties: $2,000 or 10% of wager value, whichever is greater, plus any realized profits.
- Bill follows Senate's April resolution barring members and staff from using prediction markets.
- House Oversight opened investigations into Kalshi and Polymarket in May over alleged insider trading.
Enforcement and Penalties
The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act sets steep consequences for violations. Lawmakers who place prohibited bets would owe a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the wager's value, whichever is greater, plus any profit realized from the bet. Critically, they could not use official office funds, taxpayer-funded allowances or campaign donations to cover the fines.
Those who leave office without paying fines could be referred to the Justice Department for civil enforcement. The measure builds on momentum from Steil's earlier work — the legislation builds on the Stop Insider Trading Act, which the committee advanced in January.
Steil intends to add similar restrictions to a separate, broader bill banning congressional stock trading. That bill would bar lawmakers, spouses and dependents from buying new stocks and would penalize violators with comparable fines. But progress has stalled — the stock-trading bill has stalled since clearing committee in February, though Steil has expressed hope the House could vote on it this summer.
Rising Pressure from Insider Trading Cases
The bill reflects growing bipartisan unease in Washington. The bill follows growing bipartisan unease in Washington over lawmakers and government officials using platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket to bet on political events.
The Senate already moved to restrict its own members — the Senate passed a resolution in April barring its own members and staff from using prediction markets. In May, the House Oversight Committee opened investigations into Kalshi and Polymarket over what its chairman described as a pattern of insider trading on the platforms.
Those investigations were prompted by high-profile cases. Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was arrested in April and accused of using confidential information to fuel Polymarket bets around the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, netting over $400,000 in profits. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to the charges, with the trial set for December.
"The American people deserve to know their Member of Congress is not profiting off insider information. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that cannot happen. This legislation is critical to restoring the public's trust in their elected officials. Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome." — Rep. Bryan Steil, House Administration Committee Chair
