Robinhood event contracts earn $173 million in Q3 as crypto revenue falls 55%
In brief
- Robinhood event contracts generated $173 million in Q3, versus $120 million from crypto.
- Robinhood crypto revenue fell 55% from a year earlier.
- Coinbase prediction markets passed $200 million in annualized net revenue, the company said Oct. 29.
- Gemini reported $524,000 in Q2 prediction-market revenue, about 1.2% of total revenue.
- Other exchanges launched prediction products without disclosing revenue.
Robinhood's crossover came in Q2
The flip didn't start this quarter. Robinhood's event-contract revenue first topped its crypto revenue in the second quarter, at $156 million versus $100 million from cryptocurrency transactions. The company earned $104 million from event contracts in Q1, $156 million in Q2 and $173 million in Q3.
By CryptoSlate's calculations, those quarters add up to $433 million for the first nine months of 2026 (quarterly revenue rose about 66% from Q1 to Q3). The publication also worked out that Q3 event-contract revenue made up about 12.1% of Robinhood's $1,424 million in total net revenue.
It's not locked in, though. Robinhood warned that enforcement actions, litigation or changes in law could prevent it from continuing to offer event contracts.
Coinbase reports an annualized figure
Coinbase's figure is measured differently.
Its earnings presentation defined the $200 million milestone as quarterly annualized net revenue for the most recent qualifying quarter (in other words, one quarter scaled up to a year). Coinbase also reported 82% compound quarterly growth in prediction-market revenue over the product's operating history. Daily prediction traders rose more than 60% quarter over quarter, and the company said prediction users generated incremental spot trading volume too.
Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas said the additional revenue was less correlated with crypto volatility and helped make Coinbase more resilient across market cycles.
Smaller venues, thinner disclosure
Gemini's numbers are much smaller. Its second-quarter filing reported $524,000 in prediction-market revenue for the three months ended June 30, about 1.2% of total revenue of $45 million. CryptoSlate calculated that first-half prediction revenue of $968,000 implies $444,000 in Q1, or roughly 18% quarterly growth. In the second quarter, Gemini's services revenue grew 149% year over year while exchange revenue fell 38%.
The rest of the field has mostly put out announcements. Crypto.com launched its OG prediction-market platform on Feb. 3, and CEO Kris Marszalek cited 40-fold weekly growth over six months without specifying the metric or reporting revenue. Bybit Prediction went live within Bybit Alpha on June 10 (initially focused on football). Phemex announced on April 23 that it had launched prediction markets powered by Polymarket the day before. OKX's Outcomes League campaign, published in August, used free, nonmonetary points with no real funds involved.
None of those venue announcements disclosed revenue contributions, so for now Robinhood, Coinbase and Gemini are the only ones with prediction-market dollar figures on the table.
Frequently asked questions
How much did Robinhood make from prediction markets in 2026?
Robinhood earned $104 million from event contracts in Q1, $156 million in Q2 and $173 million in Q3. CryptoSlate calculated that this adds up to $433 million for the first nine months of 2026, with quarterly revenue up about 66% from Q1 to Q3.
Is Coinbase's $200 million prediction-market figure annual revenue?
No. Coinbase's earnings presentation defined the milestone as quarterly annualized net revenue for the most recent qualifying quarter, which means one quarter's result scaled up to a full year. Coinbase also reported 82% compound quarterly growth in prediction-market revenue over the product's history.
Do other crypto exchanges disclose prediction-market revenue?
Most don't. Crypto.com, Bybit, Phemex and OKX announced prediction products in 2026, but those announcements didn't disclose revenue. Gemini is an exception: its Q2 filing reported $524,000 in prediction-market revenue, about 1.2% of its $45 million total.
