Spot bitcoin ETFs post $487.1M net outflow, largest since June 25
In brief
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $487.1 million in net outflows Wednesday, the most since June 25.
- October flows stand at a $165.6 million net outflow after roughly $2.65 billion of September inflows.
- Bitcoin traded near $83,000 as of CoinDesk's report, close to a floor held since Sept. 21.
- FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich said bears may push bitcoin into an $80.5K–$81.5K range.
- Kuptsikevich said margin-buyer capitulation could mean $76K or $72K; bargain hunting, a rapid retest of highs.
A break from six quiet sessions
The previous six sessions had swung between small inflows and outflows, so Wednesday stood out. By CoinDesk's own analysis, the outflow sat about 2.1 standard deviations below the 90-day average daily flow (which was roughly $92 million in inflows).
That's an unusually large move.
Year to date, the funds have taken in a net $717 million, per the SoSoValue figures cited by CoinDesk. That figure comes after cumulative net flow for the year bottomed at an outflow of $5.76 billion in July. Since the funds began trading in January 2024, net inflows stand at $57.33 billion.
Price sits on a floor
Bitcoin was trading around $83,000 at the time of CoinDesk's newsletter, near a price floor that had held since the rally stalled on Sept. 21. Analysts cited by CoinDesk said a sustained break lower would expose $80,000 and break the bullish stair-step pattern on the daily chart. A day earlier, analysts had said large spot ETF inflows were needed to lift bitcoin meaningfully above $87,000, a level that's capped recent gains.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, pointed to a nearby support band.
"The $80.5K–$81.5K range encompasses last month's local highs and the 50-day moving average. It may not be difficult for the bears to push the price into this area."
He said it's worth watching whether the dip attracts bargain hunters or forces buyers with margin positions to capitulate. If bargain hunters step in, he said, a rapid retest of the highs can be expected; if margin buyers capitulate, bitcoin could see a sharp drop to $76K (recent lows) or $72K (the 200-day moving average). Those are Kuptsikevich's levels, not ours, and each one hinges on how buyers respond.
What CoinDesk is watching
Spot ETF inflows had been a major source of buying during the August-September rally, and CoinDesk said weakening inflows could prove costly. The outlet's chart analysis said a break lower would confirm a bearish resolution to the consolidation and could lead to a selloff to the 50-day average at $80,550.
CoinDesk also named volatile Treasury notes, a possible escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions and a resulting oil price spike as potential headwinds. It's the outlet's list of risks, and the ETF flow data will show whether Wednesday's exit was a one-day event or something longer.
Frequently asked questions
How large was Wednesday's bitcoin ETF outflow compared with recent flows?
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $487.1 million in net outflows, the most since June 25, per SoSoValue data cited by CoinDesk. CoinDesk's analysis put it about 2.1 standard deviations below the 90-day average daily flow, which was roughly $92 million in inflows.
What price levels are analysts watching for bitcoin after the ETF outflows?
Analysts cited by CoinDesk said a sustained break below the current floor would expose $80,000. FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich pointed to an $80.5K–$81.5K band. He said bargain hunting could bring a rapid retest of the highs, while a capitulation by margin buyers could bring a sharp drop to $76K or $72K.
