Bitcoin Golden Cross Fades as Rate-Hike Odds Jump to 86.5%
In brief
- Bitcoin's golden cross—50-day EMA above 200-day EMA—formed Friday for first time since November but fell back below by market close.
- Core CPI beat expectations at 0.3% monthly, pushing CME FedWatch rate-hike odds from 69% to 86.5%.
- Bitcoin closed at $77,438, up 1.19% but well off intraday high of $79,837 as rate-hike fears triggered risk-off selling.
- 4-hour chart held its golden cross, but momentum indicators signaled weakness on shorter timeframes.
Inflation Shock Shifts Rate Expectations
Core CPI inflation data released Friday showed a monthly reading of 0.3%, exceeding analyst expectations of 0.2%. The hotter-than-expected print immediately shifted market expectations for the Federal Reserve's next decision. CME FedWatch odds of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike rose from approximately 69% to 86.5% following the data release.
A Federal Reserve rate hike would typically trigger a risk-off move from investors, putting downward pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin. That dynamic played out on the price chart. Bitcoin traded around $77,438 on the day, up 1.19%, after pulling back from an intraday high of $79,837. The pullback erased the golden cross signal that had briefly formed earlier in the session.
The Golden Cross and What It Signals
A golden cross forms when a 50-day moving average crosses above a 200-day moving average. It's one of the most closely watched trend signals in any market because it has historically preceded some of Bitcoin's larger rallies. Friday's brief formation marked the first golden cross on Bitcoin's daily chart since November.
The broader technical picture remains mixed. Bitcoin's Average Directional Index (ADX) reading on the daily chart was 45, well above the 25 threshold that separates a real trend from noise, indicating a strong directional move is underway. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 55.5 on the daily chart, on the bullish side of neutral.
Shorter Timeframe Holds Ground—For Now
The 4-hour chart maintained its golden cross, with the 50-period EMA remaining above the 200-period EMA. That persistence suggests some bullish momentum on intraday timeframes, though momentum is fading. The 4-hour RSI dropped to 43.3, moving into bearish territory.
One bright spot: The Squeeze Momentum indicator on the 4-hour chart fired with volatility expanding 3.95%, typically signaling the start of a sharp move. The ADX on the 4-hour chart was at 25.1, barely above the 25 threshold, indicating a weaker intraday trend than the daily chart. This suggests the 4-hour move, while potentially sharp, may lack the staying power of the daily trend.
The collision between a bullish technical setup and a hawkish macro surprise leaves Bitcoin's near-term direction uncertain. Traders are now watching whether the golden cross re-establishes on the daily chart or if rate-hike fears continue to weigh on price.
