Bitcoin hashprice falls 8.7% to $32.86 as forward curve implies flat network growth
In brief
- Bitcoin hashprice hit $32.86 per PH/s/day on November 2, down 8.7% from $35.99 a week earlier.
- Hashrate Index's October 30 forward curve implied 1,056 EH/s for November and 1,059 EH/s for December.
- Average forward hashprice for November through April 2027 stood at an indicative $33.04, per Hashrate Index.
- Hedges stabilize the benchmark rate but leave costs and production exposed, CryptoSlate said.
A flat curve after a steep climb
Hashrate Index, Luxor's mining data and research platform, put implied network computing power at 1,056 EH/s for November and 1,059 EH/s for December in its October 30 analysis. Both sat near the roughly 1,062 EH/s average over the mining epoch that ended October 29.
The October 30 curve implied nearly flat network growth.
Those numbers aren't forecasts, though. They're forward-implied levels, not observed future hashrate or scheduled difficulty changes, and the methodology assumes transaction fees of about 0.02 BTC per block when it translates contract prices into implied network growth.
The flattening followed a big run in difficulty, which rose from 127.45 trillion before the September 19 adjustment to 148.36 trillion on October 29. CryptoSlate called that a 16.4% rebound and said a pause in competition could give miners a respite.
Forward prices aren't offers
Hashrate Index's November 2 update, as reported by CryptoSlate, put average forward hashprice at $33.04 per PH/s/day for November through April 2027. CryptoSlate stressed that those forward averages are indicative and aren't executable offers.
The contracts themselves come in two flavors. In Luxor's cash-settled contract, a seller receives the difference when the daily index falls below the agreed price and owes the difference when it rises above it. That hedge doesn't ensure the machines keep producing. A deliverable forward instead provides upfront buyer payment against delivery to Luxor's mining pool, subject to seller credit checks and possible delivery margin.
Luxor is the counterparty to both sides, and its team has to confirm order-book buying and selling interest as trades.
Costs still bite
So what does a hedge actually cover? According to CryptoSlate's analysis, a matched, performing hedge stabilizes the covered benchmark rate, while operating costs and production stay exposed. Higher-cost fleets still need that revenue to cover electricity and other expenses (more efficient fleets have more room between gross receipts and costs).
Difficulty is only one input. Dollar hashprice also depends on Bitcoin's price, fees and subsidy.
Frequently asked questions
What is Bitcoin hashprice and where does it stand now?
Hashprice is the expected daily mining revenue for a unit of computing power. It was $32.86 per PH/s per day on November 2 at 18:00 UTC, down 8.7% from $35.99 a week earlier, according to Hashrate Index data reported by CryptoSlate. Dollar hashprice depends on Bitcoin's price, fees, subsidy and difficulty.
How does Luxor's cash-settled hashprice contract work?
In Luxor's cash-settled contract, a seller receives the difference when the daily index falls below the agreed price and owes the difference when it rises above it. The hedge doesn't ensure mining machines keep producing. Luxor is the counterparty to both sides, and its team has to confirm order-book interest as trades.
Do hashprice hedges protect a miner's margins?
Not fully, according to CryptoSlate's analysis. A matched, performing hedge stabilizes the covered benchmark rate, but operating costs and production remain exposed. Higher-cost fleets still need that revenue to cover electricity and other expenses, while more efficient fleets have more room between gross receipts and costs.
