Bitcoin holds $65,000 as Fed decision looms over crypto's next move
In brief
- Bitcoin rose 4% since Friday, holding around $65,000 on Monday
- Ether hit strongest price in nearly two months; ETH-BTC ratio climbed to three-month high
- Fed policy decision, inflation data, and tech earnings this week could set tone for risk assets
- Bitcoin needs to clear $67,300 to break consolidation or could pullback toward $52,000–$58,000
- On-chain metrics show mixed signals: 9,000 BTC left exchanges but futures open interest fell
The setup: resistance and skepticism
Bitcoin needs to clear $67,300 to break out of the multi-week consolidation that has capped prices since June. Ether faces a similar test at $2,000. The ETH-BTC ratio climbed to a three-month high on Monday, and analysts like Tom Lee have flagged ether's recent outperformance as a bullish signal for crypto markets broadly.
But not everyone's convinced the bounce will hold. Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said the recent rebound lacks the buying conviction typically seen before sustained rallies. His base case remains a pullback toward $52,000–$58,000 unless market conditions improve.
"The market is holding range without strong buyers, not building toward a breakout." — Nicolai Sondergaard, Nansen senior research analyst
What the Fed could change
The Federal Reserve's policy decision, U.S. inflation data, and earnings from several technology giants are all due this week. The Fed's rate decision will likely set the tone for risk assets on Wednesday, with Thursday's core PCE inflation report, second-quarter GDP data, and earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon following before Friday's bitcoin and ether options expiry.
Analysts say the next few days could determine whether bitcoin finally breaks out of its months-long trading range or revisits June lows. The stakes are high for risk assets.
On-chain signals remain mixed
Nearly 9,000 BTC left exchanges over the past week, a sign some holders are moving coins into self-custody. Yet open interest in bitcoin futures has fallen even as prices edged higher, suggesting weak conviction behind the move.
Nansen wants to see stronger stablecoin inflows to exchanges, sustained spot bitcoin ETF buying, and signs that long-term holders have stopped selling at a loss before turning more constructive. Sondergaard views the recent recovery as a positioning bounce rather than the start of a broader uptrend, though the crypto market's ability to stay resilient during the tech selloff has earned grudging respect from some strategists.
