Bitcoin's Underwater Supply Hits 54% as Long-Term Holders Accumulate
In brief
- 10.83 million BTC now underwater, representing 54% of measured supply versus 9.22 million still profitable
- Long-term holders reversed extended distribution and started rebuilding positions in positive territory
- Wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC turned net buyers with accumulation trend scores climbing
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain in sustained outflow while exchange order books shift toward bid side
- Glassnode frames the pattern as an early, still-developing bottoming process
The Accumulation Reversal
Approximately 10.83 million BTC are now in the red, with loss-making supply accounting for roughly 54% of the measured total compared with 46% still profitable. The gap between these cohorts—roughly 1.61 million BTC—signals a decisive shift in market psychology.
What matters most is what comes next. Long-term holders have started rebuilding positions, reversing an extended stretch of distribution, with net position change back in positive territory. Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score climbed across multiple cohorts, with strongest readings among wallets holding less than 1 BTC and entities holding 100 to 1,000 BTC. Wallets in the 1,000-to-10,000 BTC range also turned net buyers.
The pattern is unmistakable: old money is absorbing new supply.
Institutional Outflow, Retail Accumulation
US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs remain in sustained net outflow territory, yet the exit isn't going unabsorbed. Coinbase and Binance both show order books shifting toward the bid, with buyers adding liquidity below spot. This divergence—Wall Street selling while on-chain accumulation accelerates—defines the current regime.
Derivative markets add texture to the picture. Hyperliquid traders hold a long bias at the highest level Glassnode has tracked, and the 14-day put-to-call volume ratio climbed above 1.0, its highest reading in a year. Traders are betting on recovery. Holders are positioning for it.
Early Signs of a Bottom
Glassnode frames the current market pattern as an early, still-developing bottoming process. The firm notes that long-term holders buying trails the scale of prior accumulation waves by a wide margin, meaning this reaccumulation phase is still in its infancy. Price itself hasn't confirmed anything yet. But the bid is there, quiet and spreading across the entire ownership ladder.
