Atlas Capital CEO predicts 70% bitcoin crash before $500K rally

Short-term pain, long-term gain

Bundy's outlook splits into two distinct phases. He expects bitcoin to fall as much as 70% over the next six months, with his team calculating a potential floor of $26,000 to $30,000. Yet he remains convinced that bitcoin will eventually climb as high as $500,000 in the years ahead, with a longer-term range of $150,000 to $500,000.

The near-term pessimism stems from macro headwinds. Bundy argued that bitcoin has failed as an inflation hedge and is now a highly volatile risk asset moving in lockstep with tech stocks. Bitcoin was trading around $63,000, down nearly 28% this year, while the S&P 500 rose 10% and the Nasdaq climbed about 19% over the same period. The correlation matters. If equities suffer a sharp drawdown, bitcoin could amplify losses.

"We think there's going to be a massive drawdown in bitcoin in the next six months. It [drawdown] could be up to 70%. We think $26,000 to $30,000 was the number we came up with." — Reza Bundy, CEO of Atlas Capital

The Roubini factor

Atlas Capital's skepticism carries weight because of its co-founder: Nouriel Roubini, the economist known as "Dr. Doom" for accurately predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Roubini has been skeptical of bitcoin since the 2017 bull run, and he's characterized it as a "pseudo-asset class" and pure "speculative asset" lacking fundamental value. Yet even as Roubini has criticized bitcoin, the asset rose roughly 850% from its level when he first called it a bubble.

Bundy, however, isn't abandoning crypto conviction. He still believes in bitcoin's "store of value" thesis and is bullish in the long term. His bull case rests on bitcoin's long-term growth being driven by rising government debt, central bank money printing, and dropping trust in traditional currencies.

The Atlas strategy

Atlas Capital runs the "techno-dollar" strategy through a traditional ETF vehicle with ticker "USAF" on the Nasdaq. The strategy uses AI-driven allocation models to shift exposure among assets, including gold, food, real estate and defense technology. The fund currently has about $18 million in net assets and returned 8.7% since inception.

Bundy's warning underscores a real tension in markets. Volatility can destroy wealth in the short term, even if long-term thesis holds. His forecast—brutal drawdown followed by a climb toward five figures—echoes the pattern that's marked bitcoin's history: crashes followed by rallies that dwarf the losses.