Topic: #macro
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US gasoline prices rise for first time since May as Iran ceasefire collapses
US gasoline prices posted their first weekly increase since May following the collapse of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, reigniting oil market volatility and reviving inflation concerns for crypto markets.
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Citigroup Q2 2025: $5.9B markets revenue, crypto custody launch planned
Citigroup reported $5.9 billion in markets revenue for Q2 2025, up 16% year-over-year, marking its strongest second quarter since 2020. The bank announced plans to launch crypto custody services in 2026 and is advancing tokenization infrastructure for institutional clients.
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Bitcoin braces for CPI and Warsh testimony collision today
June CPI data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony collide within 90 minutes today, setting up a critical test for Bitcoin and rate expectations. A softer inflation print could ease hawkish pressure, but geopolitical oil shocks and sticky core inflation complicate the picture.
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South Korea Raises FX Thresholds to Boost Won's Global Role
South Korea raised thresholds for overseas remittances and foreign borrowing while extending currency services to more firms, aiming to increase the won's use in international trade and finance.
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Bond traders bet on July Fed rate hike as Chair Warsh signals hawkish stance
Bond traders are placing record bets on a July Fed rate hike following hawkish signals from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at his June debut. CME futures show 30% odds for July, while the dot plot suggests nine of 18 policymakers expect at least one hike by year-end, potentially strengthening the dollar and pressuring risk assets including crypto.
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Russian refinery output hits 20-year low amid Ukraine strikes
Russian refinery operations fell to their lowest levels in over two decades following Ukrainian strikes in June, with crude oil markets now pricing in elevated odds of record-high prices by year-end as OPEC cuts and geopolitical tensions weigh on supply expectations.
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OPEC Raises 2027 Oil Demand Forecast to 1.94M Barrels Per Day
OPEC revised its 2027 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.94 million barrels per day, up from 1.73M bpd, while lowering its 2026 estimate to 780,000 bpd amid short-term economic uncertainties and anticipated rebound driven by China and India growth.
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Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz traffic plummets amid US-Iran tensions
Brent crude climbed roughly 4% above $74–$76 per barrel after shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell below 2% of normal levels, with over 150 vessels stranded and forecasts of an oil surplus now at risk.
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US Treasury two-year yield hits 18-month high on Iran tensions, oil surge
The U.S. Treasury two-year yield surged to 4.21%, its highest since November 2024, as geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices fuel market speculation that the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy to combat inflation.
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Gold falls as US-Iran tensions drive oil prices higher, Fed rate hike looms
Gold slipped to $4,118.71 per ounce amid surging oil prices triggered by US-Iran strikes, while inflationary pressures reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike by October under Chair Kevin Warsh.
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Federal Reserve holds rates steady as inflation projections surge to 3.6%
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at its June 2026 meeting as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took the helm, even as inflation forecasts climbed 0.9 percentage points. Economists expect no further moves for the rest of the year, though the FOMC's hawkish dot plot signals at least one hike remains possible.
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Dollar hits two-week lows as rate-hike bets fade, boosting Bitcoin and Ether
Weak June jobs data sent the dollar tumbling and rate-hike odds falling, triggering a sharp rally in Bitcoin and Ether as investors rotated back into risk assets.
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US Tech Funds Pull $14.3B in Week, Pace $152B Record Year
US technology funds absorbed $14.3 billion in inflows during the week ending July 1, the second-largest weekly inflow on record. At the current pace, 2026 is projected to deliver $152 billion in total tech fund inflows for the year, shattering all previous records and highlighting an unprecedented concentration of capital into a single sector.
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Bitcoin rallies past $62K as options traders hedge against $66K ceiling
Bitcoin rallied above $62,000 after a weak US jobs report eased rate-hike expectations, but options traders remain heavily hedged with puts trading at a premium. A large call-spread structure suggests the market sees a $66k-$68k ceiling as a potential rejection point.
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US job growth slows to 57,000 in June, dimming Fed rate hike odds
The U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, significantly below expectations, prompting traders to slash odds on a Fed rate hike by July to just 8.5 percent.
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South Korea launches 24-hour won-dollar trading for developed-market status
South Korea began continuous KRW/USD trading on July 6, 2026, extending forex access from weekday-only hours to roughly 6 a.m. Monday through 6 a.m. Saturday. The move addresses MSCI's currency-control concerns and could unlock billions in passive index inflows if the country achieves developed-market classification.
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China auctions 30-year bonds at 2.2% yield, lowest since November
China's Ministry of Finance sold 85 billion yuan of 30-year special treasury bonds at historically low yields, part of a broader 1.3 trillion yuan annual program analysts link to de-dollarization strategy and yuan internationalization.
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Google loses €4.125B EU antitrust appeal over Android bundling
Google's challenge to a €4.125 billion European Commission fine for abusing its dominant position in mobile operating systems through bundling practices has been rejected, with the European Court of Justice upholding the penalty and establishing precedent on how tech platforms can violate antitrust law.
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US Resumes Dollar Shipments to Iraq After Nine-Day Suspension
The United States resumed physical dollar shipments to Iraq on May 1 after a nine-day suspension tied to pressure over Iran-backed militias. The cash freeze blocked roughly $500 million in deliveries, highlighting how Washington weaponizes economic leverage without formal sanctions.
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Dollar holds multi-month highs as US payrolls loom, yen slides to 1986 low
The US dollar is holding firm near 101.1-101.2 on the index while the yen has weakened to its weakest level since 1986. June payrolls data due around July 2 could influence Fed policy and drive further currency moves.
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Tech Profit-Taking Hits Nasdaq, Semiconductors; Meta Surges on AI Cloud Service
US equity markets declined on July 1 as investors trimmed technology positions, with the Nasdaq falling 0.66% and semiconductors hit hardest. Meta Platforms bucked the trend, surging 9% after announcing plans to monetize excess AI computing capacity through a new cloud service.
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Iran and US establish direct communication channel after Doha talks
Iran and the US concluded indirect technical discussions in Doha and agreed to establish a dedicated communication channel to manage regional disputes. The development may reshape crypto's role in sanctions evasion and international trade frameworks.
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Treasury picks BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street for Trump Accounts ETFs
The US Treasury announced that ETFs from three major asset managers will power Trump Accounts, a new tax-advantaged savings program for children launching July 4 with a $1,000 government seed contribution and an explicit ban on crypto assets.
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Magyar Nemzeti Bank cuts rate to 6% to spur Hungarian growth
The Magyar Nemzeti Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate to 6.00% on June 24, 2026, aiming to stimulate economic activity and reduce borrowing costs. The move may signal shifting expectations for rate policy across Europe, though economists warn of inflation risks.